Next came January and with it the risk and uncertainty created by a roller coaster ride on the global stock markets. Carriers began talking in earnest about capacity reductions, slowing down vessels and adding to the strings. On the long haul routes this is easy; on the shorter routes the impact is to reduce the number of port calls. Maersk Line reduced capacity, re-organised, began cutting staff numbers and continued its revenue yield strategy. ZIM on the other hand announced new services, including Asia to North Europe and joined the Grand Alliance on the Transatlantic.

The spectre of a global recession hangs in the air. World gross domestic product (GDP) for 2007 is estimated, by Global Insight, at 3.8% with a projection for 2008 of 2.7%. The Eurozone GDP is expected to drop by 1% to 1.7% in 2008. What we are seeing is the industrial nations slowing down while the emerging countries, including China, continue to grow,  albeit at a marginally slower pace. Industrial production is softening, always a harbinger of a slowdown in container volumes. Most economists appear to agree that there will be a mild recession in the US and possibly Japan but that the rest of the world will weather the storm.

The impact on ports will be to create further competition for mainline services as volume growth slows from the spectacular rates of growth in the last three years. The good news is that congestion pressures in Europe are easing thereby giving ports some relief.