During 2007 there was little capacity in rival insurance markets for rates below London, a term which in this context means largely the TT Club and Lloyd's. So usually there was little point in a ports business switching cover. Suddenly, the disaster-free period has taken its toll on the carriers' argument for building the premium base, and the market has weakened: by up to 20% on some risks in the US, and up to 10% in London.

In the US, areas exposed to windstorm, where there were very big increases in rates in 2006 and 2007, are seeing that advance unwind, and large reductions are conceded. In some cases, the rates have dipped lower than before Katrina. As TT Club chief executive Paul Neagle has said of the US, "It is quite remarkable how volatile that market is." 

Of course, property and casualty underwriters in general made big profits in 2007, but the rates downswing is a dilemma for insurers who no longer can rely on investment income and must focus much more on making an underlying surplus. Industry experts predict this could have a marked effect on bargaining in the second half of 2008.

TT Club chairman Sir David Thomson in a commentary on the mutual's healthy financial outcome for 2007, said that despite intense market competition, it managed to achieve a very high retention of business on renewal, with its premium rates falling at that stage by an average of around 5%, well below the market figure.

Rate reductions at the club have been offset by organic growth, and in line with that, the club is now seeking to attract to its membership bulk terminals, a departure from the largely container-linked business in which it has specialised since its foundation 40 years ago. Bulk terminals suffer additional risk because loading a bulk carrier is a finer calculation than a containership, but overriding concerns for all insurers and all terminals remain constant: the rising tally of bodily injury and handling equipment claims.