Freight loses Asia pull
Jari Kauppila: Trade by sea to China suggests a slowdown
The latest global freight data highlights concern over economic recovery and exposes the risk of dependence on Asia-led growth, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Overall freight volumes indicate a marked macroeconomic slowdown according to data collected by the International Transport Forum at the OECD. External trade by sea in Europe and the USA is settling around 3% and 4% (respectively) below pre-crisis levels, according to preliminary estimates of tonnes of goods carried.
Seasonally adjusted data compiled from both sea and air freight points to an underlying change, Jari Kauppila, economist for the Forum told PS.
“Recovery in the EU-27 and the USA has so far been led to a considerable extent by exports to Asia, “said Mr Kauppila. “However, our latest data indicates that this positive trend has reversed and tonnes exported by sea from United States and EU-27 to ASEAN countries declined in the months before June 2011.” He added that trade by sea to China suggests a similar slowdown with tonnes exported from the USA declining while exports from the EU seem to be static.
Taken in total, trade with ASEAN countries by air and sea has seen a decline for both regions. Only trade with India seems to have resisted the otherwise downward trend.Images for this article - click to enlarge
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