Recovery still 'uncertain' for some
European trade will continue to grow next year despite the impact of the various austerity packages says Global Port Tracker
It's a mixed picture that is emerging from the dust of the downturn, and there seems to be quite a lot of latitude when projecting trends.
While the Global Port Tracker’s view is that European trade will continue to grow next year despite the impact of the various austerity packages introduced in countries with excessive debt, other areas seem a little more shakey according to some.
Data compiled by the International Transport Forum on global freight flows points to a recovery that is "uncertain and weak", especially when taking into account US figures. Volumes are still below their pre-crisis levels with the EU27 group of countries down by 6% (in tonnage) while the US is down by 7%, according to preliminary estimates.
The forum also points out the trend for US seaborne trade turned downwards in September 2010 for the first time since the recovery started. Imports from China in particular have been falling in for both air and sea.
Data for the EU countries is generally less gloomy when taking freight transport as a whole (including goods by air), but the Transport Forum report adds the trend shows signs of slower growth for goods carried by sea.
However, while recognising the uncertainty that faces Europe as a result of austerity packages, Ben Hackett of Global Port Tracker says, “Our view is that the growth will continue; perhaps a bit slower than we have seen in 2010, but nevertheless after the seasonal downturn we project volumes will increase.
One area of growth has been transhipment volumes between the North European ports and the Baltic Sea which were hit particularly strongly in late 2008 and early 2009. “The turning point was reached in the second half of 2009 and since then container traffic in the Baltic Sea has almost doubled,” reports Sönke Maatsch of ISL.
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