The evolution of global transport
Jack Short: Transport systems will be required to operate much more efficiently in future
In the future there will be pressure to make whole transport systems change, adapt and improve, but “policy innovation is less discussed, and perhaps is the greatest challenge for us”, said Jack Short at the recent International Transport Forum.
The points made by Mr Short on the first day of the 2010 Forum event were also key findings within the ITF’s annual study, which further looked at the impact of the downturn along with other pressures on the sector.
According to research by the ITF/OECD’s Joint Transport Research Centre, the current crisis has had a relatively greater impact on trade and transport than previous economic downturns. This is reflected in very large volume and price effects, especially in freight transport: Trade fell by about 20%, according to the CPB World Trade Volume Index, dry bulk shipping rates fell dramatically by a factor of 8 from 2007 to 2008.
Transport growth will have considerable impact on future CO2 emissions, says the study, adding that demand management in transport can help to reduce emissions. It is also badly needed to address other transport related problems, such as congestion, air pollution, and noise.
However, the ITF experts do not see it as a primary tool for curbing emission growth: firstly, changes on the scale needed to curb CO2 emissions are likely unfeasible or economically undesirable. Secondly, technological innovation provides better ways to reach climate change targets.
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