{"id":690,"date":"2022-03-31T15:18:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-31T14:18:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/portstrategy.nfdtesting.uk\/greenport-congress\/2022\/03\/31\/war-is-the-unfolding-of-miscalculations1\/"},"modified":"2022-03-31T15:18:00","modified_gmt":"2022-03-31T14:18:00","slug":"war-is-the-unfolding-of-miscalculations1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.portstrategy.com\/greenport-congress\/news\/the-strategist\/war-is-the-unfolding-of-miscalculations1\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cWAR IS THE UNFOLDING OF MISCALCULATIONS(1)\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

There is only one place to go in this column this month \u2013 Ukraine.<\/strong><\/p>\n

To witness an unprovoked attack on Ukraine by Russia, or perhaps more accurately Vladamir Putin, is hard to countenance. Hard to see the human suffering that is unfolding as a result and very hard to understand, in 21st Century terms, what the end game is here? Can it really be about resetting history after the end of the Cold War, about reversing time and winning back the old Soviet sphere of influence? Is it about legacy, does Putin see himself as the last Russian leader who is willing to try and enlarge Russia\u2019s influence in an era when it has been steadily diminishing?<\/p>\n

Such ideas seem more than a little beyond the bounds of reality but maybe that is easy for me to nervousness manifesting itself in the population. Russian businesses too, even in the early days of the application of sanctions, are feeling the pain. One example: in just three days Global Ports, the Russian port operator, suffered a huge fall in market cap from USD1 billion to USD250 million. The unparalleled unity in the western world behind the objective of making Vladamir Putin pay for his actions will only lead to more severe consequences for the Russian people and increasingly for business as Russia takes on the mantle of a pariah state. So, the big question is, has Putin got it right or, like so many dictators before him, has he over-played his hand into a serious miscalculation? Ultimately, while there is a road to run yet, will it end for him as it did for so many of his ilk before him? say sitting in London watching events from afar. The illegal annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 stands as a major pointer to Putin\u2019s ambition and self-evidently this is a man that is willing to use force to secure his goals. There is more than a little \u2018might is right\u2019 about the Putin style of leadership. We have seen this in Chechnya, Georgia and more recently Syria.<\/p>\n

But like all campaigns, Putin\u2019s order to invade Ukraine is based on a calculation and at this stage it remains to be seen if it is a well thought out calculation, a winning one.<\/p>\n

It is hard to fathom exactly but there is clear evidence to suggest that the Russian population is not entirely convinced about the merits of a war with Ukraine. There have been demonstrations across Russia, many Russian citizens have been reaching out to western media stating that they are opposed to the war, especially younger people. A poll released by the independent Levada Centre determined that only 45 per cent of Russians were in favour of Putin\u2019s recognition move that preceded the invasion.<\/p>\n

Underpinning this there is steadily growing disquiet among elements of Russia\u2019s population about the increasing repression being felt under Putin\u2019s dictatorial regime. It is unlikely that these seeds of discontent will be allayed with \u2018the man in the street\u2019 feeling the financial pressures resulting from the war \u2013 at one point the Rouble had lost up to 30 per cent of its value with the subsequent part restoration of its value only achieved by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation more than doubling interest rates from 9.5 per cent to 20 per cent.<\/p>\n

The queues at ATMs in Russia are a testament to the financial nervousness manifesting itself in the population.<\/p>\n

Russian businesses too, even in the early days of the application of sanctions, are feeling the pain. One example: in just three days Global Ports, the Russian port operator, suffered a huge fall in market cap from USD1 billion to USD250 million.<\/p>\n

The unparalleled unity in the western world behind the objective of making Vladamir Putin pay for his actions will only lead to more severe consequences for the Russian people and increasingly for business as Russia takes on the mantle of a pariah state.<\/p>\n

So, the big question is, has Putin got it right or, like so many dictators before him, has he over-played his hand into a serious miscalculation? Ultimately, while there is a road to run yet, will it end for him as it did for so many of his ilk before him?<\/p>\n

(1)Barbara Tuchman. 1912 – American historian<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There is only one place to go in this column this month \u2013 Ukraine.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43],"tags":[],"sponsor":[],"class_list":["post-690","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-strategist"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.portstrategy.com\/greenport-congress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/690","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.portstrategy.com\/greenport-congress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.portstrategy.com\/greenport-congress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.portstrategy.com\/greenport-congress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.portstrategy.com\/greenport-congress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=690"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.portstrategy.com\/greenport-congress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/690\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.portstrategy.com\/greenport-congress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=690"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.portstrategy.com\/greenport-congress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=690"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.portstrategy.com\/greenport-congress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=690"},{"taxonomy":"sponsor","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.portstrategy.com\/greenport-congress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/sponsor?post=690"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}