Growing differences across the globe

“Firstly, in shipping – unlike most other sectors – the emerging markets are actually much bigger than the mature markets,” explained Kim Fejfer of APM Terminals to Port Strategy.

“There are a few underlying reasons: one is the growing intra-Asia trade, another is there are simply more moves on transhipment routes than direct calls that are linked immediately to a domestic market,” said Mr Fejfer. “This obviously means more handling for the terminals.”

Bottlenecks are already re-emerging in certain areas, and there is room for development. However, investors are still quite cautious. “Before the downturn, pension and equity funds, thought port investments simply gave a good rate of return, but they may have underestimated the energy and experience required.” Mr Fejfer added, “You have to be an active owner, work with port authorities, vendors, governments as well as customs. It all takes a lot of energy – so the people with more experience, who have been around for longer, are simply more wanted.”

On the other side, the more mature markets such as North America and Europe are still seeing a fair amount of overcapacity. “This means many ports are being squeezed by their customers, the result being that ports in these areas will have to become very lean, and very focused.”

However, those ports with deepwater “will be at a premium” added Mr Fejfer, leading to a divide in fortunes with ports such as Rotterdam coming out on top.

Lastly, according to Mr Fejfer, there will be more focus on strategy, as carriers rebuild their balance sheets, and look carefully at terminal networks as an overall “strategic network”, taking into account specifics such as vessel sizes and feeder flows as well as particular deals, rather than just a series of port strings.