Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates says that he doesn’t share the optimistic views being floated about in the market because the Northern European market remains on a downward slope with little prospect for growth.
“The recession continues and it looks like the peak season will not come” he said.
He points out that the slowdown in China’s growth rate is impacting the export scene as much as the recession, which has negated any hope of a peak season.
The latest forecast for international trade in Europe for 2013 projects a 3.9% increase in total imports to Europe but North Europe is projected to fall by 8.9% to 12.2m teu. The export forecast projects a 4.1% increase for Europe as a whole, with a total of 17.66 teu, with North Europe decreasing by 2.3% to 10.59m teu.
There are a few short term hopeful signs though. In 2013, the North Range ports incoming volumes are forecast to increase by 0.1% in 2013 to 16.0m teu, while outgoing volumes are projected to grow by 1.5% to 17.6m teu.
And Le Havre is set to outpace all other North Range ports this year with a growth of around 10% in what is otherwise a stagnating market.
