Brexit: changing the logistics landscape

Boris Johnson’s revised exit agreement with the European Union will be voted on in the UK Parliament in the next couple of days.

Whatever your preference – Leave or Remain – I doubt anyone will be sorry to see the end of what has been a protracted saga and one which frankly has not cast UK politics and politicians in the best light.

To crash out of the EU would undoubtedly be a stupid move and one with big consequences for the man in the street cost wise. If it materialises this is the route that is taken it will be at a big price in all senses not least in the context of achieving civil unity.

The UK is split in various ways about leaving and remaining, it is a close call in terms of overall numbers with the Leave vote just edging it. The North of England wants to Leave and the south to remain. Scotland and Northern Ireland want to remain and Wales wants to Leave. Hardly ‘speaking with one voice.’

If a new referendum vote were to be undertaken would the numbers change? Probably yes. For a start, there would almost certainly be a larger vote – more people would participate. Second, the issues are clearer – to be honest the original referendum was surrounded by a lot of ‘BS’ and in some quarters a distinct lack of enthusiasm to engage with the subject and its implications in a meaningful way.

We now know, for example, that there is a large divorce bill to pay as part of leaving the EU – €36+ BILLION – a factor that was never highlighted prior to the original referendum.

Equally, there was absolutely no discussion of the potential for the waste of millions of taxpayer UK pounds in false-start preparations for leaving the EU such as that epitomised by the UK Government chartering ships based on the prospect of a no deal BREXIT.

Do we now understand all the implications of leaving the EU – I doubt very much that the average UK voter does? The whole political focus has been on leaving and very little on what comes after.

In terms of port activity and logistics it is very clear that crashing out of the EU on a no-deal basis is an unacceptable path. As Richard Ballantyne, Chief Executive of the British Ports Association pointed out recently: “We have repeatedly warned that a no-deal Brexit would be unacceptable…and reiterate our view that a future relationship should prioritise the flow of trade at our frontiers.”

Whatever the modus operandi of the UK’s departure from the EU, given that it eventually happens, it is manifestly clear that that it will reshape the UK and European logistics landscape.

Presently the upside appears to be for mainland Europe organisations, with increased activity there as opposed to in the UK. Indeed, to the best of our knowledge there have been no major advantages spelt out for UK and port and logistics players.

No surprise here, however, it just seems symptomatic of the one thing that Leavers and Remainers can agree on, that the whole process is a just a mess! And one that the UK might take a very long time to clear up!