Between a rock and a hard place

Marked by a dearth of sales activity, cancellation of tenders, and plummeting volumes across the board, there’s not much to reminisce about.

So perhaps it might be more fruitful to focus on the future and what 2010 might hold for the ports and terminal industry? Might we see a swing in fortunes, a spike in business, or a spring in the step of port deals?

While, as the eternal self-confessed optimist, I would love to answer yes to all of the above, I fear that 2010 is not going to bring the relief so many ports and terminals are after. We still have the glut of containerships on order to overcome -over 40% of the existing fleet at the last count.

And then there’s the small business of recession and what letter this one will take the shape of. Will it be the forgiving U or V, the evil W or the let’s-all-pack-up-the-end-is-nigh X?

The Eurozone is officially out of recession, as is the US and Japan, but what do these figures actually mean to the ports’ business? Inventory restocking is tentatively taking place, which is a short term fillip for thirsty ports. But once that has been completed, we have to put our faith in consumer confidence returning to normal to keep that trickle of traffic flowing.

And despite official figures, there’s still little to be positive about in the ‘real world’; the massive hurdle of unemployment is a case in point. Unemployment in the eurozone is expected to rise to 10.7% in 2010 from 9.5% this year. Current OECD unemployment rates range from a low of 3.5% in the Netherlands to a high of 18.3% in Spain. And in the Americas, the US figure is still at a 26-year high of nearly 10%, while Mexico is ‘celebrating’ a 13-year high of over 6%.

None of this points to a return to normality just yet and consequently we enter 2010 with just one positive to cling to: we can safely say we are now one year closer to the end of the recession, but when that end will be is still anyone’s guess.

Enjoy the brief hiatus while it lasts, because it may be a while before the next one.