Keep a weather eye on the broader picture

He also told me that if you look at data from a different angle, it can yield useful nuggets.

Yes, port business is picking up, but you can’t believe every statistic you read. Comparing 2010 throughputs with 2009 is not fruitful because, of course, an improvement will be registered off the horrible lows of 2009.

Happily, a year later, the world economy has not fallen off a cliff. National Retail Federation forecasts (prepared by my fellow columnist Ben Hackett) points to growth of 25% in the first half of 2010 versus the year earlier period. Much of this is import growth.

Long term trends are more telling; analysts must remember that overall 2009 was down 17% from the 2008 throughputs, suggesting that we are getting closer to the longer term line. Still, it’s positive news, but it’s important for port executives to pull back the curtain.

At the top of the fold, the front page article (in New York, we would say, “in your face” to describe the article placement) in the Wall Street Journal on March 12, 2010 was headlined “Export Revival Threatened By Shipping Bottlenecks”.

Top management at industrial companies will surely have read this, red-pencilled it – or whatever the digital equivalent is – and sent it on to logisticians.

Port executives should keep a close eye on the broader transport picture. The WSJ article presents what could only be described as a tale of woe – rotting vegetable shipments at rail sidings, wheat stuck in silos, and so on.

Within all this drama (which the WSJ writers tie to equipment tied up because of imbalances inbound versus outbound) is opportunity for port planners.

The ability to wear the hat of the logistician, working with truck, train and barge connectors to port hinterlands, is a powerful marketing tool for ports.

In the “business development” toolkit, creative problem solving is a valuable instrument which will gain the loyalty of shippers and the endorsement of top corporate managers.