UK traffic picture never static

The company has completed 160 major consultancy and forecasting projects in 30 countries in the past 18 years, including for government and other institutions, and port and terminal clients.

However, this new contract is unusual in that Fisher is not producing a forecast directly but building a model so that the DfT can produce its own forecasting, albeit with ongoing support from the company.

“This model is looking at the big picture – structural economic changes and many other factors – in order to produce national port forecasts,” says Chris Fisher. Some of the analysis will be simple, other parts blindingly complicated, he says. The final spread sheet style model will take data in and use the relationships between different variables to produce a forecast.

When is such a project finished? The answer is, never, he says – the model will have to allow for variations around the corner.

“You have to make the model flexible so it can handle different scenarios. For example, one where we do actually produce 20% of energy from renewable sources in 2020-25 and one where we don’t. What will happen in Scotland decides to become an independent nation? What happens if we decide to leave the EU? Who could have predicted the Russian annexation of Crimea and what about the impact on gas? Politics and policy can have a big impact.”