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Figure 1. European Seaborne Container Trade Growth by Trade Corridor 2020-2040 THE ANALYST

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WEAKENED CONFIDENCE

The Central and South Vietnam container port region dominates activity in the country, outperforming national growth in recent years. Yet double-digit increases mean that terminal infrastructure must keep pace with higher volumes, a tough challenge in any location.The leading position of Ho Chi Minh in the country is easy to see, based on volume share. Of the sample of port data considered in Figure 1 (which is equivalent to 97 per cent of total country origin-destination traffic), the port handled 88 per cent of all non-transshipment containers in 2021 in the Central and South region of Vietnam, a largely consistent figure over the period.Indeed, Ho Chi Minh has seen its total origin-destination volumes increase from 3.46 million TEU in 2014 to 6.56 million TEU by the end of 2021, reflecting growth of 9.6 per cent per annum. This compares to annual increases of 10.2 per cent for the Central/South region in total and 9.7 per cent per annum for Vietnam as a whole – Ho Chi Minh clearly remains the driving force of not only Central and South Vietnam, but the country as a whole.There is major container port infrastructure in this location. There is the Vietnam International Container Terminal (VICT), in which CMA CGM (47.3 per cent) and Mitsui OSK Lines (15.7 per cent) hold shares in the 700,000TEU per annum facility, while there is also the 500,000TEU per annum Saigon Premier Container Terminal (SPCT), operated by DP World.HO CHI MINH: LONGSTANDING PLANSThere are longstanding plans to expand port capacity in Ho Chi Minh, with up to four different sites recently under consideration, as part of the development plans to 2030. A favoured choice since 2020 has been 250ha on a site next to Long Tau River in Binh Khanh Commune, although ship sizes are reportedly to be limited to 3600TEU.A second option, at a 50ha site next to the Long Tau River in Thanh An commune, was dismissed immediately due to its proximity adjacent to a nature reserve and the lack of road connections. While there is 150ha available in Long Hoa Commune where ships up to 10,000TEU could call, but, again, this is problematic as it is near the Can Gio Biosphere Reserve.The fourth, and seemingly most sensible option is a 100-ha deepwater site near Ong Cho Islet, next to Cai Mep port, which has the capability to receive up to 20,000TEU vessels and can support the continuing shift from feeders via Singapore to deepsea direct calls, a key part of the Ho Chi Minh market.This last option should be regarded as the best location because Cai Mep, which is located approximately 50km south east of the main city area, has been developed on a gradual basis over the course of the past 20 years, after initially starting as a satellite option for the greater Ho Chi Minh city area.There is also now the Tan Cang-Cai Mep International Terminal operated by Mitsui OSK Lines, with capacity of around 1.8 million TEU per annum and the Gemalink International Container Terminal, which is part of the CMA CGM/Terminal Link global portfolio. Unsurprisingly, this second facility is used almost exclusively by CMA CGM, with deepsea vessels of up to 16,000TEU calling on transpacific routes to/from the US West Coast. The arrival of another two largescale ship-to-shore gantry units during 2021 brought the crane fleet to eight on Gemalink’s 800m berthing line – supply was from local manufacturer Doosan Vina, a Vietnamese affiliate of the South Korean Doosan Corporation and an outreach of 25 rows across the vessel is possible.AP Moller Maersk subsidiary, APM Terminals, also has an established facility, located 50km southeast of Hi Chi Minh City. The company retains a 49 per cent stake in Cai Mep International Terminals (CMIT) which offers an annual capacity of almost 1.12 million TEU and can successfully handle vessels with capacities up to 20,000TEU CMIT GOING DEEPDuring Q1 2022, CMIT acquired its sixth Super Post Panamax crane, matching the specification of the existing five units already on site. One highly important improvement that is planned involves channel dredging to deepen access routes for larger vessels. Although the water depth alongside the terminal is already at 16.5m, to reach the facility the depth in the approach channel is limited at 14m. This is due to be improved during 2022, as Nguyen Xuan Ky, CMIT General Director confirms: “Deep-water terminals like CMIT and shipping lines highly appreciate the strategic vision and concentrated efforts of the Government/the Ministry of Transport to upgrade the maritime infrastructure, typically Cai Mep channel is expected to be dredged to minimum of 15.5m in Q4 this year. This will create better conditions for the largest vessels currently calling Cai Mep enabling the transport of more Vietnam export cargo in near future.” Cai Mep has already handled container ships of 20,000TEU capacity, but tonnage of this size can only call at the port with numerous restrictions with respect to the tide, wind, vessel draught and other traffic activities. However, there are confirmed works aimed at easing access to the port for increasingly large container ships. The national government is spending US$62 million improving the approach channels for larger vessels by widening from 310m to 350m. Work will be overseen by Vietnam’s Maritime Project Management Board, part of the Ministry of Transport and is scheduled to commence before the end of 2022.VIMC & MSC PROJECTThere are also other noted plans in this port area too. For example, Vietnam Maritime Corporation (VIMC), Saigon Port JSC and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) are seeking to build and operate a new, largescale, modern container terminal in Can Gio district in Ho Chi Minh City.The Can Gio district is located where the Cai Mep-Thi Vai navigational channel commences, where water depth is greater and access to the international sailing routes is quicker, as endorsed by VIMC which stated the following as part of its proposal submission: “Can Gio is located at the start of the Cai Mep-Thi Vai route, near international shipping routes. This is important for establishing international container transshipment services.”The proposal further outlines the development of a terminal with the capability of being able to receive the largest container ships in service and to eventually offer annual capacity of 15 million TEU. VIMC expects the project to cost an estimated US$850 million, according to official documents submitted to the Vietnam Government in late March 2022. There is definite interest in further supporting hinterland access for the Cai Mep port area, with two additional rail routes to/from the marine complex foreseen. However, as outlined on p28-29 there is a strong reliance on foreign investment to bring any rail expansion plans to fruition – which at this time cannot be guaranteed. The Vietnamese Government wants the construction completed and operations commencing by 2030. The bottom line, however, is that it remains to be seen if theory will go into practice regarding the comprehensive expansion of rail capacity. Ports in Vietnam in the Central and South region process the critical mass of container volume with the northern ports ranked second in this respect. Across the board, however, the ability of these ports is being tested by the general shift of manufacturing from China to Vietnam, which is progressively dictating the need for port and terminal infrastructure and greater water depth to handle the foreseen volume increases moving forward. At the same time, it is to be hoped that the plans laid for the large-scale expansion of rail capacity will be taken up with the resulting much needed improvement in port connectivity. OPERATIONS

UNDER PRESSURE

Figure 1: Development of Origin- Destination Container Volumes at Haiphong Port 2014-2021, in ‘000 TEU OPERATIONS

JUNIOR PARTNER

Figure 1: Overview of Vietnam’s Main Container Ports OPERATIONS

BIG SPENDING PLANS

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