Slowing – but not by much
This year, according to the latest update to Global Insights World Trade Model, total world (international) trade will climb by 4.1%, slower than last years 5.0% and even slower than the record growth of 6.2% in 2003. Total tonnage this year will hit more than 8.7 billion metric tons.
Historically, world international trade fell by 5.1% in 2002, and most of this was overland cargo moves that collapsed by more than 15.0%. Seaborne trade still increased, but only by 1.6% in 2002.
Of the four service types in the Global Insight model, namely, dry-bulk, tanker, container, and general cargo, dry-bulk shipments are forecast to slow to 1.2% per year over the final nine years of the projection (2015-24), as shown in the Table 2. Coal and grain growth will slow in line with the general longterm slowing in economic growth, says the forecaster.
2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-24<$>Dry-bulk 4.8% 3.5% 2.1% 1.2%<$>Tanker 1.2% 2.7% 1.9% 1.0%<$>General Cargo/Neo-bulk 2.5% 4.1% 3.2% 2.5%<$>Container 8.1% 5.8% 5.0% 4.4%
The shares of global sea trade by service type are shown in the pie chart.
TABLE 2: Growth Rates of Four Major Service Types – Ocean Freight
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