Trump’s return brings renewed volatility to global trade, with tariffs disrupting supply chains and fueling inflation. His policies, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions, are pushing the world toward divided trading blocs and strategic nearshoring. While previous tariffs reduced China’s export share to the U.S., rerouting through other countries softened the impact. Scaling up domestic production remains a challenge, and retaliatory tariffs could harm U.S. exports. For the EU, strategic trade shifts—such as strengthening ties with Canada and Mercosur—offer opportunities. In this uncertain landscape, adapting supply chains and fostering new trade routes may be more effective than retaliation.