Insight and Opinion – Page 8
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What’s not new and what’s next
Accurately forecasting the future is always a challenging business. Imagine doing this prior to early 2019 – how wrong would you have been? Who could have imagined COVID-19 or Russia initiating a war in the Ukraine? At an industry level, who could have forecast the phenomenal profits of shipping lines, the mega investment in new tonnage and diverse new business streams. A similar scale of change has been triggered in the bulk agri-products and energy markets. A lot to discuss – hence the timely restart of the Terminal Operations Conference in Rotterdam this month, one welcome return to normality!
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NewsTICKING TIMEBOMB
The blockade of Ukraine’s grain export ports represents a ticking timebomb for some of the poorest nations in the world cut-off from the supply of essential foodstuffs.
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Food Challenges – IAPH Initiative – Opportunities – Building to a Higher Level
The recent UNCTAD so-called rapid assessment report on the war in Ukraine highlights concerns over the two fundamental “Fs” of commodity markets – food and fuels.
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NewsEURO’ BOX TRADES ASSESSED*
During the last two decades, there has been a steady shift regarding European container trade partners from the West (North America) to the East (Asia). The results of a new study from Royal HaskoningDHV,The Future of European Container Trade,show that this trend is likely to continue over the next two decades. Overall, European container trade is expected to grow by 2.8% per year (CAGR) between 2020 and 2040. However, the various European trade lanes are expected to show significantly different growth trends.
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The Key Discussion Points: Ukraine Centre Stage
In the Q&A session at the end of Oatway’s presentation, the Ukraine confl ict was the key discussion point. Asked about the impact of the confl ict and sanctions on the MPV market and trading patterns, Oatway said: “MPVs are not massively aff ected in the Black Sea shortsea trades – but the impact of suppliers finding other sources will inevitably mean changing trade patterns.
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NewsWEAKENED CONFIDENCE
The influence of the Ukraine war on global economic conditions is seen as a signifi cant factor influencing the outlook for the multi-purpose vessel fleet. Felicity Landon reports
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NewsGRAIN: A PRICE TO PAY FOR WAR
Andrew Penfold discusses the far-reaching changes triggered in world grain trade by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Higher prices with potentially very damaging consequences are a central theme
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SANTOS: TO HUB OR NOT TO HUB?
Does the port of Santos, Brazil have what it takes to achieve major hub status? An interesting question in itself but all the more interesting as it is an issue that has a major bearing on the forthcoming off er of a new concession, STS10, for container handling as well as on the planned privatisation of the port management body.
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NewsGOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS: TAKE YOUR PICK
Recession is in the news but there is no consensus as to when this might occur. The good times may be over before they really took hold.
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PORT CLUSTERS: THE SOHAR ‘BREAKAWAY PROJECT’ GREEN INITIATIVE
Scholars looking into clusters in general, and port clusters specifically, have come to understand that the development of such clusters is a path dependent process, in the sense that past developments in ports aff ect the future development path of these ports. Sohar’s industrial port complex has been mainly built around the availability of relatively cheap gas.
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NewsTHE BIG D’S AND THE WIND OF CHANGE
In the realm of deepsea shipping, where I spend a lot of time, the big items are “digitalisation” and “decarbonisation”.
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NewsUKRAINE CRISIS: GLOBAL CHAOS
Initial uncertainty was focused on the impact of Russian threats on the Ukraine, we can now see that the realisation of these have far-reaching global impacts. Andrew Penfold identifies the critical factors
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DPW-P&O FERRIES: WHAT CODE OF ETHICS?
DP World, owner of P&O Ferries, has gone to the trouble of publishing an eight-page document on its Code of Ethics, the openings words of which state: “DP World’s intention is to create a culture of honesty and openness…”
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NewsTHE COLD WAR IS BACK, A NEW NORMAL LOOMS
Congestion and supply chain problems continue to be with us and now the Ukraine war has caused a thick fog over our industry.
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POLITICAL PRESSURES SET TO CHANGE TRADE HORIZONS
All of a sudden (or at least so it seems) gone is the conviction that free trade is a ‘win-win’ solution that will make all countries (and their people) better-off.
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NewsNO TO REGULATION BUT YES TO DATA COORDINATION INITIATIVE FROM FMC
By the time that this column appears, the situation in Ukraine could have stabilised, or gotten much worse; it’s impossible to forecast.
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Negatives and positives
I make no apology for returning to the starting point of my last Viewpoint – Ukraine.
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FIGHTING TO SURVIVE
Oleksandr Gavrylyuk, Port Strategy’s Ukraine based correspondent, provides a human perspective of life in the face of Russian aggression
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“WAR IS THE UNFOLDING OF MISCALCULATIONS(1)”
There is only one place to go in this column this month – Ukraine.
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NewsWHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM STATISTICS
Are politicians misleading us as to how strong economic recovery has been in 2021 or should we trust them?
