New dynamics after Russia’s export ban

During the Cold War, the world held its breath, watched and wondered if Russia had ambitions to take over the world by force.

Today, although that threat has receded, and Churchill’s Iron Curtain has been drawn back, Russia still appears to have ambitions to dominate the world – this time through the supply of grain.

As recently as early summer this year, it was reported that Russia had ambitions to increase the amount of grain it exported by building elevators at ports not only in consumer countries of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, but also in potential emerging markets in Indonesia.

Concurrent with that was the development of increased loading capacities in the Black and Asov Sea basin, the Baltic region and the Far East region – to the tune of 20m tonnes a year.

But those ambitions to ramp up grain exports have, for the moment, gone up in the smoke of hundreds of thousands of its burning acres of drought-ravaged crops.

Mr Putin’s export ban from mid-August to the end of the year saw a flurry of trading activity as shippers sought to get cargoes aboard and vessels away before the bar came down.

Although supplies of Russian grain have disappeared in a puff of smoke, demand naturally remains constant, for the production of all manner of things for which the world has an insatiable appetite.

Once again it is the ports industry that will have to react. World supplies are healthier than they were two years ago but ships, currently in the wrong place, will have to be diverted to America, which holds them.

So once again the balance of power has the rest of the world looking alternately at Russia and America, with both fully aware that the way to Man’s heart is through the stomachs of millions.