Transport, logistics and environment: strategic allies

This is because transport emissions have grown by 70% between 1990 and 2005. This results from the combination of what could be considered a “clean” energy matrix by world standards, due to the strong presence of hydropower, with a “dirty” transport matrix, mainly based on road mode.

As it is known, road transport emits about six times more CO2 and eighteen times more NOx than waterborne transport. In the São Paulo State (SP), for example, the largest economy and most populous state in Brazil, such indicators are even higher: road transport accounts for more than 85% of cargo transportation, and the sector, as a whole, is responsible for 55% of the total CO2 emissions.

At those levels that are well above the world average, transport seems obviously to be a key factor for the Brazilian GHG emissions reduction polices.

São Paulo State Plan
In Brazil, transport master plans have been developed. Despite Brazilian high per capita emissions generated by fossil fuels, with only one-fifth of those being in OECD countries (about 1.92 tonnes of CO2), specific climate change plans were set in 2009, prior to the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference – COP-15.

The national plan, with targets for 2020, adopts the trend criterion with reductions goals between 36.1% and 38.9%.

On the other hand, the SP plan, which has the same horizon, adopts absolute values and establishes a 20% emissions reductions goal over the 2005 levels (39.8m tonnes of CO2.). This means a 50% decrease by the mentioned trend criterion (percentage similar to those for Europe- 2050, by its “White Paper”), because the projected emission is 76.1m tonnes of CO2 if the current production and consumption pattern would be maintained (“business as usual”).

Those targets are a big challenge. Achieving them requires multiple and great efforts mainly because the national vehicle fleet -currently 77 million- has been growing fast since many years. For example, throughout the last decade, a growth between 25% and 50% was noted in major urban centres. Such efforts involve plans and actions in four major areas including fuel, vehicle technology, modal shift and system planning and management. Many of those actions are already in progress.

During the 70s’ ‘oil crisis’ trail, Brazil launched a programme to boost sugar cane ethanol production. It aimed at either adding it to gasoline or to enable the development and production of vehicles which moved only by ethanol. Four decades later, it is estimated that nearly one billion oil barrels were saved and something like 1,000m tonnes of CO2 was avoided to be thrown in to the atmosphere.

In 1986, another national programme was established to control and reduce air pollution by motor vehicles (PROCONVE) based on the reduction of progressive emissions limits. Currently those limits correspond approximately to the Euro-4 levels of the European programme. To fulfil such goals and limits, the automobile industry has been incorporating new technologies into vehicles and new fuels are being developed and used increasingly.

On the other hand, taxis started to use natural gas in 1991. Some years later, the natural gas was also used by individual vehicles and, more recently, by cargo vehicles. Currently, it is estimated that 15% of the national fleet are able to use it. Diesel, which is only used for cargo vehicles, was traditionally supplied with 2,000 parts per million (PPM) sulphur standard, and came down to 500 PPM in major urban centres at the beginning of this century. Since 2009, this process has been spread out across the whole country.

Since 2003, the automobile industry began to produce “flex” vehicles. These vehicles are able to use both gasoline and ethanol, identifying them automatically. Besides ethanol, also biofuels from other sources (castor beans, palm, canola, sunflower, peanut, soybean and cotton) are being tested, mainly in public fleets.

The development of vehicle technology and fuel is necessary and essential, but still not sufficient to lead the country to achieve the established targets. Due to these projects, the transport modal shift has gained importance, both for passengers and cargo. These guidelines have been part of the transport plans for a long time, but without much success. Now, with the targets set for the GHG emissions reduction, and following international experiences, the trend is set for the integration of transport and climate change plans, since a strong synergy between both has been established. The integration should increase the effectiveness of both.

Regarding passengers systems, the goal is to reverse the public transport share fall in most cities, which, years ago, used to exceed two thirds of the trips in some metropolitan areas but are now below 50%.

Electrified and non-motorised systems are also being prioritised. The plans involve significant expansion projects for existing metro and regional train networks, deploying new networks in lacking cities, and also building new VLT and BRT systems. Many of these projects were developed and gained momentum as part of the works to welcome the World Cup Football in 2014 and the Olympics in 2016.

Reducing GHG emissions
For cargo, the goal is to increase the rail and waterway shares in the transportation matrix. Nationally, the target for 2025 is a relative reduction of 43% in road transport (58% to 33%) and an increase of 123% in the waterway (13% to 29%); for which it a national plan has been released for greater use of more than 40,000 km of navigable rivers.

In the case of SP, the goal is to reduce the road transportation share from 93% in 2000 to 65% by 2020, and to increase the railway share from 5% to 31% during the same period.

Recent studies have indicated that, in the same horizon, waterborne transport, which had the highest growth in the last decade (more than 10% per year on average) could have its share increase for more than a tenfold, settling it to around 5%. Simulations indicate that if such transportation matrix were already a reality, Brazilian cargo transportation GHG emissions could be reduced by a third.

One thing that caught the attention in the last SP Origin-Destination Survey (2006) is that 46% of the trucks run empty. Such rate is around twice bigger than the European and three times the American rate. This implies, of course, unnecessary emissions, energy consumption and use of infrastructure, and inevitable losses of time and high costs.

Road transport is deregulated and highly fragmented in Brazil. This can help explain such high percentages. The good side of the story, on the other hand, is that there is a significant margin and opportunity for efficiency gains in logistics and environmental benefits, which is achievable through better planning and managing systems. This perspective is also valid for passenger transport, especially public transport.

How to move forward
The idea is not new. Neither are the plans. The proposed instruments are known and used by almost all other countries that are engaged in such programmes. The challenge, therefore, is to convert plans and designs into reality – and on time! But the hope is that this challenge should be facilitated by a strategic alliance that can be established between transport and logistics, on one side, and environmental policies, on the other; something that has become increasingly clear and explicit.