Trade increases only part of the recovery picture

World shipping trade is forecast to grow 8.5% this year, according to the latest forecast from IHS Global Insight’s World Trade Service.

Transpacific eastbound trade – from Asia to North America – is expected to be a star performer with 10% growth in 2010, closely followed by Far East to Europe routes with an 8% rise in volumes anticipated this year.

“Solid growth is forecast for westbound trade after two years of decline,” added IHS Global Insight. “Eastbound transatlantic trade from North America to Europe is forecast to return to 2007 levels by 2013.”

However, fellow consultant Drewry is more tempered in its optimism for the container sector, describing the upturn as a “cautious recovery”.

“The latest container trade data suggests we may have entered a real recovery phase but comparisons with the depth of the recession in 2009 must be treated with caution,” said Drewry. “Until we see consistent month-on-month improvements on the main trades into this year’s peak season period, we cannot seriously suggest the current global recession is over and that the container sector can heave a sigh of relief.”

Drewry confirms it has also noted “robust trade volumes” moving on the Pacific trades, however ”healthier traffic flows have helped to give a slightly false impression of the current ‘recovery’ since, in particular, carriers have constrained capacity on the transpacific trade,” said Neil Dekker, Neil Dekker, editor of the Drewry Container Forecaster.

While IHS Global Insight acknowledges that major container shipping operators recorded huge losses in 2009, according to its figures in February and March 2010, the number of container ships in layup dropped and stood at 1.2m teu, or 9.1% of the container fleet on March 1, “the lowest level since July 2009”.

“Additional capacity is expected to be taken back into service in the near future as new services are opened and vessels reduce their cruising speed,” said the consultant.

But Drewry counters: “It is still early days; a large number of post-panamax vessels are due for delivery this year and most of the all important transpacific rate contracts have still to be signed.

“This year will be a very tough one for carriers to balance capacity against forecast demand and should too much tonnage be brought back in or too quickly, it is possible that the freight rate improvements, giving carriers much needed cash injections, could be derailed to some extent.”