Containers to have ‘banner year’

Exports from the Far East to North America and Europe bounced back as importers began to re-stock their depleted inventories as sales growth renewed. While the pace is expected to slow a little next year with containerised trade looking like growing 6.8% in 2011, IHS said: “2010 and 2011 will be banner years relative to the hardship the container industry faced in 2008 and 2009.”

The transatlantic trade lane is comparatively small, although still imbalanced in favour of European exports, and growth rates are susceptible to the moves in the US dollar exchange rate. Particularly sensitive are exports from the US to Europe which hinge on the weaker euro.

The outlook for bulk shipping is also improved following a decline of 2.8% in bulk commodity trade in 2009. IHS Global Insight forecasts bulk commodities to grow in 2010 through 2011. The Baltic Dry Index has been steadily increasing since the beginning of the year, and seasonal demand should also boost bulk exports over the next quarter.

Dry bulk commodity shipment tonnage, which includes grain, iron ore, and coal, will increase 10.3% in 2010 and 8.7% in 2011.

World trade by all modes of transportation – sea, air and land – is set to grow 8.1% in 2010 and 6.9% in 2011, following a 7.2% decline in 2009.