Rational thinking

Speaking to delegates, Stefan Woltering, managing director Bremenports stressed that ports need to remember that globalisation is not over, and that it is only trade flows that are currently restricted.

Ben Hackett, senior advisor, IHS Global Insight, added that the great recession is “most likely near the trough” and the huge financial stimulus packages being pumped into economies around the world will certainly help the recovery.

Also a Port Strategy columnist, Mr Hackett went further to predict a modest recovery in gross domestic product in 2010.

“Every economic cycle has a trough and a peak; there’s no reason to believe this recession will not follow a cyclical pattern. It will take some time to get back to the peak of world trade, but that doesn’t mean that growth will be muted; we’re just starting from a lower point.”

He pointed out that a number of regional trades are still in positive territory, such as the intra-Asia trades.

However, while the end of the recession is in sight, credit problems remain and the gut of container carriers due to be delivered in the coming years will keep that trade under pressure.

“Carriers will be in survival mode for at least 18 months to two years,” Mr Hackett told delegates. “This should be no surprise; overcapacity was pointed out as early as 2007.”

Mark Page, director liner shipping, Drewry Shipping Consultants, agreed that the situation for carriers is going to get worse before it gets better

“Carriers are going to have to adopt radical strategies to get through. Deliveries for container ships will not fall below 1m teu a year before 2012 and any trade equilibrium will be destroyed by supply/demand imbalance. To get back to a balance in supply and demand, we need another 3m teu to disappear.

This, he believed, would lead the container shipping sector to “haemorrhage money” in 2009, with “very serious” consequences for the global supply chain.

Chris Bourne, executive director, European Liner Affairs Association, added: “You have to hope for a price recovery (for lines) or it is going to be a blood bath.”