On the 2020 campaign trail

Though the spectre of a ‘trade war’ (however it is defined) looms in the background, throughputs have been good throughout 2018. But the new year has brought more uncertainties; financial markets are hinting that, perhaps, growth could slow. Some observers are suggesting that last year’s robust cargo flows were ‘anticipatory’, that is to say they were to bring in cargo before tariffs hit.

As I’ve noted before, my crystal ball was shattered many years ago, so I will keep the forecasting in someone else’s wheelhouse. With the start of 2019, the grist for a different type of forecaster — those who handicap political races — has now begun in earnest.

Here in the US, suddenly the next national election in 2020 is ‘only a year away’. My track record of predicting political outcomes is no better than my successes (or not) with cargo moves, vessel hires and freight rates, but recent events in New York City got me thinking about a win-win 2020 scenario. The Governor in New York, Andrew Cuomo (a consummate Democrat politician and a Clinton-era Cabinet member) has tried hard to build his infrastructure credentials. His centrepiece has been the relatively on-time and near-budget reconstruction of a major bridge, named after his father, Mario Cuomo, who was the Governor in the 1980s.

Most recently, he dived headfirst into the political muck and over-ruled a regional transit authority that was poised to shut down one of the city’s major underground lines for two years, applying fixes after its muddying up from the flooding due to Hurricane Sandy a few years back.

The Democratic political field is jammed and snarled with possible contenders who will run against President Donald Trump — himself a lifelong New Yorker until he moved to Washington, D.C. — in 2020, but my money is on Cuomo.

The Presidential campaign will be contentious, no doubt, but I look forward to a race where both candidates try to outdo each other in their promises to fix the crumbling surface modes and to improve flows of vehicles. Yes, that’s what I’d like to see: two New Yorkers, both from the Borough of Queens, shouting loudly about how important it is to improve transport infrastructure.

Read more in the January/February 2019 copy of Port Strategy — click here to secure your exclusive copy.