Slow burning global issues

What might the implications be for shipping and for ports along the U.S. East Coast? For the short and even medium terms, there will be little or no immediate impacts, the ebbs and flows of cargo will continue and a tepid US economic growth forecast (and its implications for container imports for the US Holiday season) is unchanged. Life will go on here, pretty much the same.

Longer term, the concerns are on the financial side. What would be the impact of financial market shake-ups as London loses its clout? Will protectionism rise up, and noticeably curtail seaborne trade? This is unlikely, in my view, but nevertheless it’s worth a weather eye kind of lookout.

For shipping generally, inefficiencies – rather than reduced tonnage flows – are a good thing. At a New York Maritime (NYMAR) meeting, following the Marine Money conference in late June, one panelist said as much.

Hamish Norton, a one-time investment banker and now chief executive of a large Greek dry bulk shipowner, suggested that slowdowns at borders if Brexit begets an EU cataclysm would actually encourage cargo to move on vessels.

Of more topical interest is the opening of the widened Panama Canal, which took place in late June. While most shipping publications heralded the opening with articles about the waterway and the new neo-panamax type vessels, The New York Times ran a blistering expose about the Canal.

It seems that concrete is porous and newly constructed tugboats for the Canal can only run in reverse. Quite honestly, I could not help but think that the article was funded by a cabal from either the Suez Canal, a consortium of West Coast ports, or perhaps, advanced public relations flacks for the Nicaragua Canal.

But such articles are side shows, diverting attention away from bigger questions. Like Brexit, the impact of the new locks and the neo-panamaxes, will be felt over time. Short term, it’s good for folks with cargo as newly surplus 8,000-12,000 teu vessels cascade through the Canal to places like New York.

Over time, though, it remains to be seen whether the infrastructure wars on the US East Coast will pay off, for New York and others.