Looking south-east

He explains that one reason for this is that a captive market is better than one that can (relatively) simply float away – and main liner services have shown a recent tendency to “cut out the middle man” wherever possible.

But he says, despite the languishing fortunes of south-eastern Europe at the moment, the region has “a large, and upwardly mobile domestic economy which, in the medium to long term, will make its mark”.

He points out that, while northern European ports have a generally higher level of technical competency today, in the Black Sea region there is a particularly strong national interest in port development from the governments. This includes public-private partnerships and incentives which are government backed.

Key markets include Turkey, Russia and Ukraine, and while Mr Poersch accepts rail, road and inland waterways still need development, “if you are looking at ‘trade corridors’ to markets in central Europe for instance, these routes are likely to become very competitive”. Even given the bottlenecks getting into the Black Sea there’s still room for 6,000-7,000 teu vessels.

He also believes in the power of habit, and points out that south eastern Europe has strong transport links into central Europe via Italy simply because of the Yugoslavian wars, where bad infrastructure conditions, customs barriers and political instability meant that initial maritime detours became established links.

“A history becomes a habit if it’s competitive,” says Mr Poersch. But this can work two ways: while freight forwarders tend to look to the land transport alternative first, he thinks there’s room to change minds. “Is a Bulgarian or Romanian port just a good a bet as an Italian one? Even now, it’s a possible contender depending on the trade route or supply chain.”