Rough water ahead for northern Europe

The forecast, released by Hackett Associates LLC and the Bremen Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL), indicates that while volumes are expected to be relatively flat through December, the medium term prospects look grim.

Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates says he expects “rough water ahead”.

“Looking forward to 2012 we expect growth to drop off sharply, much as it has already done in North America,” noted Mr Hackett. “We are becoming less and less optimistic about 2012 with numbers turning down for at least six months – the Euro’s looking under pressure with a sovereign default looking possible, as opposed to unthinkable”.

Mr Hackett noted that the total level of imports across northern Europe continues to post month on month declines, despite June’s 5.9% gain over last year. For incoming volumes, only Zeebrugge posted an increase in June over May, with the other ports that are being tracked posting single-digit declines. Exports on the other hand are expected to continue to grow, albeit slowly.

Looked at from a global perspective, Mr Hackett pointed out that the US and most Asian countries, including China, are facing diminished growth. “Bulk volumes are declining, always a leading indicator of a slowdown in industrial production,” he said.

Mr Hackett added that “economic indicators, whether short or long term, are not painting an encouraging picture of well-being across the world.”