Pace changes but strategy lags behind

But does this mean that the growth projections made three or four years ago are simply delayed, and only waiting for the players to regroup?

Well, not quite: he points out that historically the import-export balance ran at a level of two boxes in to one out but the recent trend toward equalisation implies the curve to Northern European volume increases will be quite a lot slower and flatter than before. Further, Asian pull might also stutter under the drag of another European crisis.

Despite this, Mr Poulsen is optimistic: “Operators are used to taking a view that looks across two or three decades,” he says – but he adds that it would be better if others could take a longer term approach.

“The shipping industry, especially in Northern Europe, staggers from feast to famine and then back again. Instead of looking for solutions that would eventually benefit everyone, the strategies are about either expansion or survival,” says Mr Poulsen.

He adds, “If we carry on pulling the blanket from one side of the bed to the other, a lot in the interstices simply won’t get the chance to be worked on,”

As to how this balance would take place in an industry that stipulates competition, Mr Poulsen says that “between pure supply and demand and complete coexistence, there’s a lot of grey”.

However, some things will be changing. “The orders have been already placed, the steel has been cut, so it’s a given the ship sizes are on the way up,” says Mr Poulsen. “While the increase in vessel sizes doesn’t alter the total amount of cargo, it does put a strain on infrastructure,” he says, adding that many yard activities are already stretched in keeping pace with quayside cranes. So, by using Lift AGVs at its new facility at Maasvlakte II, APM Terminals estimates it will be able to gain somewhere between an extra 25% and 50% in productivity.

Despite the focus on the larger facilities, Mr Poulsen doesn’t see a case for ‘winners’ and ‘losers’. “There will be a place for everybody: while there will be overcapacity in the short term, nobody will go out of business,” he says – although he does foresee a re-appraisal of market sector on the cards for quite a number of facilities.