Hard times predicted for box market

However, the review notes that while absolute profit levels will inevitably be down in 2009, many international operators are likely to still be able to maintain a reasonably strong EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) margin in percentage terms. Drewry’s Neil Davidson said: “This will be a remarkable achievement in the worst year the industry will have ever experienced.”

The company estimates the contraction in global container port throughput in 2009 to be over 10%. In 2010, Drewry expects to see little or no growth, and anticipates that it will be 2011 before a modest recovery in demand will return… and 2012-2013 before most regions see their throughput regain 2008 levels.

However, there may be acquisition opportunities for those operators and investors with ready access to funds. The most likely terminal portfolios which may become available are, in Drewry’s view, those owned by shipping lines. Valuations, suggest the company may be around eight to 12 times the EBITDA, though this has yet to be confirmed by the market.

The company also points out that despite 2008’s unprecedented volume declines, the leading five players, topped by PSA and HPH, remained the same and kept their – relative – market share.