It’s that time of year again, when we look back over the past year and look forward.
Looking back, an interesting phenomenon manifest in Europe is featured in our article 2023 Statistical Decoupling which essentially highlights the fact that over the last few quarters the GDP-trade relationship, as the article says, “does not tell the full story for 2023.” The author, Johan Paul Verschurre. Director, Rebel Consultancy, highlights the new reality that: “pre-COVID-19 the goods related economic sectors are performing in sync with overall economic activity, but that since 2020 there are large variations between segments of the economy.” This,” he says, “makes understanding the GDP headlines and the implications for the container segment not as straightforward as in pre-COVID-19 times.”
A seemingly relatively small detail – a matter of statistics you may say – but actually quite seismic when you consider for how the long the traditional GDP-trade relationship has been used as a mainstay of container forecasting!
Also looking back, we can see the proliferation of shipping line investment in terminals over 2023 and prior to this. Again, in conjunction with the European situation, the author, Andrew Penfold, in the article A Game Changer? raises another interesting strategic point. Traditionally the EU has been careful to monitor and regulate the distribution of container handling power – for example between the major terminal operating groups. The same reality does not, however, seem to apply to shipping lines – take for example MSC which has acquired large terminal assets in Le Havre, Antwerp, Rotterdam, Bremerhaven and soon to be Hamburg as well. (The closing of this latter deal is anticipated for the second quarter of 2024). Have the Regulators missed a trick here? Time will tell if this greater control over the supply chain ultimately results in reduced or increased cost.
Looking forward, yes of course we can see more emphasis on decarbonisation and digitalisation these elements are here to stay and will doubtless expand their influence in the near to medium term.
What is perhaps more pleasing, however, looking forward is the expanding spirit of greater collaboration between parties in the supply chain.
Our news pages highlight the discussions that are now underway between key ports about establishing a global network of innovation hubs. Similarly, we can see the number of participants in the METEOR project growing – an initiative aimed at the detection of illicit substances in containers.
Attendance at the IAPH World Ports Conference in Abu Dhabi recently further confirmed this enhanced spirit of cooperation, with the strong ties established between IAPH and the International Maritime Organization being a particularly strong indicator of this. Equally, the World Ports Conference programme featured diverse other initiatives underpinned by a new spirit of collaboration and cooperation. One such current initiative is a partnership established between IAPH and chainPORT, a multilateral partnership of the world’s leading ‘smart ports,’ regarding a project to develop a common understanding of the critical components of digital port infrastructure in order to harmonise data throughout the maritime supply chain.
Have a Great Xmas, Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year from all of us here at Port Strategy.
