In March 2023, the European Court of Auditors (ECA) published a report in which it argued that the EU’s ambitions regarding the growth of intermodal transport are not realistic.
More specifically, the European Green Deal calls for a substantial part of the 75 per cent of inland freight carried today by road to shift to rail and inland waterways.
The ECA points out that the ‘modal shift’ ambitions are not new, but were already included in the 2011 whitepaper setting out the freight transport policies. However, since 2011, the share of intermodal (rail and inland waterways) transport has not grown at all; in fact, it even declined somewhat. In addition, the total volume transported by rail & inland waterways also grew only very moderately (rail volumes grew 8 per cent in the decade 2010-2020).
In spite of these developments, the EU targets a growth of rail freight of 100 per c ent by 2050, and a growth of inland waterways transport by 50 per cent in 2050. The European Commission foresees a substantial growth of freight transport overall, and strives for a significant (but unspecified) shift from road to rail and inland waterways.
In my view, both of these drivers of rail volume growth are highly uncertain. The overall freight transport volumes do not necessarily grow as the economy grows; an increasing decoupling can be observed. The aspired ‘modal shift’ is also uncertain. In addition, the environmental performance of road transport is bound to increase, as it will increasingly use electricity (and in addition hydrogen).
As with passenger cars, the shift to electricity may go fast once the tipping point, at which e-trucks become cheaper than diesel trucks, is reached. Even with e-trucks, there may be societal benefits of using intermodal transport, as a shift to intermodal may alleviate highway congestion. However, this congestion is mostly driven by commuting in rush hours, so the effect is probably not very large.
All in all, aspirational goals for the growth of intermodal transport are fine, as long as policy makers do not become so invested in achieving these goals that they agree on massive investments in rail infrastructure and intermodal terminals. There is a serious risk that the costs of such investments will turn out to be higher than initially estimated, while the benefits will turn out to be lower than initially estimated.
