Beyond the tipping point, what next?

Seemingly, we are on the road back to normality, if indeed anyone can rememberwhat that was prior to the advent of COVID-19!

This is not to say its all over, done and dusted so to speak – lock downs continue in China, industrial action is a new widespread brake on a return to a less volatile operating environment and behind these operational aspects is a world dogged by rising inflation and the prospect of economic recession plus of course the madness Vladamir Putin has unleashed on the world. There is no doubt that he will secure his placein history but almost certainly not in the way he intended – more in the hall of infamy than the hall of fame!

The big question is will there be a soft landing or a crash? The jury isstill out on this but in our industry, with a few notable exceptions such as the gas sector, there are some disturbing signs. One big barometer is China and in our article ’Belt and road – quo vadis?’, which looks at China’s Belt and RoadInvestments (BRI) in the port sector, we detect clear signs of frailties in the Chinese economy with these, in turn, amplifying the inherent flaws of the BRI programme. The Belt and Road Initiative is slowing – indeed it seems to have metamorphosed from a tool for investment and strategic advice to a growing source of problems.

It is natural that the post-Covid era brings with it a lot of scrutiny as to what happened and what lessons can be learnt as well as some speculation about what next?

We address key takeaways that can be identified in our article Congestion: Lessons Learnt. While we recognise that there are some bigpolicy issues that need attention and some heavy industry investments that are required, we also identify some low hanging fruit, particularly at an organisational level, that with the right treatment can realise significant ongoing benefits. Yes, positive takeaways. This thinking is also mirrored in the Strategist column which highlights IAPH’s interesting new Closing the Gaps report.

When it comes to speculation, look no further than the final page of this issue – what we call the PS Page. It tackles the interesting question of what happens next with liner investment in terminals? History has a view of this which suggests any downturn in the fortunes oflines will bring a reduction in this activity and ultimately divestment. Does this mean opportunities for independent terminal operators around the corner?

Plenty of food for thought, enjoy the read.