Canal effect more evolutionary than revolutionary

“The outlook for the east coast ports this year is for continued recovery in volumes, likely at high single digit percent container volume increases for the year compared with 2010 for both imports and exports. Non-containerised export volumes should be healthy, even in the face of generally increasing commodity prices globally,” he says.

“Expansion plans are proceeding as fast as the ports collectively can move them, subject to constraints of permitting, financing and of course politics (such as surrounding dredging).”

But, he adds that the Panama Canal expansion effects are “likely exaggerated”, although “the 2014 completion of the expansion is on schedule and it will have an impact quickly with upgraded vessel sizes – although not commonly up to ‘New Panama’ size vessels initially.

“The market impact on the ports is likely to be more evolutionary than revolutionary given the likely still-moderate trade growth rates on Panama routes over the next few years.

“This reduces the pressure on the ports to develop rapidly compared with the pre-recession view from a few years ago. From the port development perspective, the recession has bought some time for ports to prepare for eventual consequences from Canal expansion, with the period of reduced trade volumes the industry has lived through in 2008-2009.”