PS PAGE COPY

This is the message that comes through loud and clear from a comprehensive new 125pp publication from Dynamar of Holland entitled

Black Sea, Container Trades, Ports & Terminals, Hinterland. Dynamar in charting the recent fortunes of container shipping makes the point that the Far East-Black Sea is the most important trade route and that following the downturn the number of services active in this trade corridor reduced from nine to four – although the downturn did take longer to arrive in this part of the world. It is also this latter factor, Dynamar indicates, that served to keep 2008 port throughputs in the region up at fairly healthy levels. This year, however, a decline in volume in the majority of ports is expected in the order of 30% to 50%.

Dynamar is convinced, however, that once the current economic gloom passes, the Black Sea region will again be the scene of dynamic growth in the container sector. “Russian and Eastern European container trades will,” it says, “continue to increase at an above average rate, as they have done since 2000.” Specifically it expects a “catch-up” factor to kick-in and a big boost to be provided by Russia’s imminent World Trade Organisation membership.

The development of the “back-door” into Russia is also cited although with the proviso that much will depend on the development of hinterland connections and the presence of efficient customs procedures.

The issue of trade imbalances is highlighted and is identified as generally more serious than in most trades. Dynamar cites two examples:

• The main Ukrainian ports, where it says 85% of full containers are imports, the balance accounting for exports, and
• The Russian (Black Sea) port of Novorossiysk where loaded boxes account for 76% of import movements and 24% of export trade. Further, Dynamar points out that the majority of loaded boxes moving in import trade are 40ft units while the export cargoes move mainly in 20ft units.

There are, therefore, ongoing logistical issues for operators to address associated with sizable trade imbalances in the region.

Alongside the multi-faceted focus on the region’s container industry, the new report also provides some interesting economic snapshots of the individual countries in the region and again it does so with its data more or less right up to date. Take Georgia, for example, in conjunction with this country its commentary includes: “The present day shows that Georgia holds itself sturdy, even though it went through a short but hefty war with Russia in 2008 and suffers from the current crisis like every other country. This is shown by its growth declining from 12.5% in 2007 to an estimated 2% in 2008 following a sharp contraction in the second half of the former year. Yet despite all of that, Georgia does not suffer from an economic decline, at least not yet. As a matter of fact, helped by a major bail out from the IMF and others, it is expected to post a one per cent GDP growth at the end of 2009 unlike the other Black Sea countries whose economies are all expected to contract.”

Black Sea Container Trades, Ports and Terminals, Hinterland is available at a price of ¢595.00 in pdf format or by email in pdf format with the full printed report in colour at price of ¢660.00. Visit www.dynamar.com