Stable 2026, mixed 2027 says BIMCO

The company, which represents shipowners, operators, managers, brokers, and agents, is assuming that ships will not return to the Red Sea in both 2026 and 2027 but is expecting demand growth of two to three per cent this year, with supply growth of two and a half per cent. For 2027, demand activity will rise by one to two per cent, but there will be stronger increases in vessel supply, with three per cent anticipated.

Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager, BIMCO, notes: “Freight rates could remain strong in 2026, as strong market conditions carry over from 2025. However, in 2027, we expect that they could start to slip, reflecting the weaker market conditions. Overall, we expect that the Capesize segment might continue to outperform the other segments, supported by low fleet growth and benefiting from growing sailing distances.”

He further outlines that average sailing distances are expected to increase by 0.5% to 1.5% annually, due largely to bauxite and iron ore shipments moving from the South Atlantic to Asia. Looking at cargo types specifically weaker forecasts are made for iron ore and coal volumes with stronger demand for grains and minor bulks.

With respect to the supply side over the next two years, Panamax and Supramax units are projected to lead accelerating fleet growth, with deliveries expected to reach 40 million dwt in both 2026 and 2027 (incidentally, for the first time since 2020). Confirmed Capesize orders placed in late 2025 are expected to be mostly delivered after 2027, resulting in only limited impact on BIMCO’s latest forecasts.

“The potential full return of ships to the Red Sea poses a significant downside risk to the demand outlook. We estimate that a full return would be equivalent to a two per cent decrease in tonne mile demand due to a reduction in average sailing distances,” said Gouveia.

Additional analysis from BIMCO has also revealed that bulk grain shipments have jumped by 15% year-on-year in the first six weeks of 2026, driven by a 30% surge in soya bean exports and a 17% increase in wheat shipments.

Gouveia explains that record harvests in the Southern Hemisphere and the US-China trade agreement have boosted these flows. As a result, first half 2026 projections are remaining firm due to rising Brazilian exports, along with Australian wheat production rising and new highs from Argentina’s wheat crops.

For full year 2026, BIMCO expects global grain shipments to rise by five to six per cent, although it did warn that harvests in Northern Hemisphere locations will influence this position.